Note: This guide isn’t intended to cause panic. There are many factors that influence the likelihood of a particular job being replaced by AI. Even if you are in a high automation risk industry, your particular job may be relatively safe because you have a generous employer, you work for the government, or maybe your company just can’t be bothered implementing AI into anything.
So remember to stay calm. If your job is going to be automated then you will likely have plenty of notice as AI systems and robotics are slowly implemented into your business. But hopefully this guide will help you to plan ahead and prepare for your future.
What Careers Are Safe From AI
Over the next five years, AI will eliminate millions of jobs as companies benefit from the increase in productivity. While there is no job that’s completely safe from AI, some have more protection than others.
White Collar Versus Blue Collar
White-collar work is significantly easier to automate with AI for several reasons. Upgrades to software can be rolled out instantly over the internet. Companies also don’t need to build any new robots to house the AI, we already have computers for that.
Blue-collar jobs have significantly more challenges when it comes to automation. For example new factories need to be built or adapted to handle the production and storage capacity of millions of robots.
Robots acting in the physical world also have a greater risk of causing accidents and endangering lives. And robots walking around the street will probably cause more panic, further impacting the speed of their rollout.
There is another factor to consider when looking at the challenges of automating blue-collar work. Moravec’s paradox is the observation that high-level reasoning requires relatively little computation, while low-level sensorimotor skills require enormous computational resources.
In other words, it’s easier to make machines perform tasks that humans consider “difficult” (like complex calculations or playing chess) than to make them do things we consider “easy” (like walking around or recognizing objects in real time).
The Threat of Humanoid Workers to Blue Collar Jobs
Many people are wondering why companies are investing so much money into building clumsy humanoid robots when specialized robots like those already used in manufacturing can do a much better job.
If you think about it carefully, the advantage of humanoid robots is clear. As soon as an effective prototype with enough intelligence and dexterity to navigate the world and manipulate objects is developed, then theoretically it will be able to replace any job that a human can do.
There will be no need for installing expensive robotics systems that require a large initial investment and take years to build. Instead, companies will have access to a large robotic army to perform any task. Software updates can then be rolled out to the entire workforce to gradually improve their abilities.
However, mass-produced humanoid robots of this capability are at least a few years away. It will take a significant amount of time to build the factories necessary to produce them. In the short-term, they will mostly only be taking simple jobs like stacking boxes at factories and supermarkets.
We can also predict that companies trying to implement them will face massive backlash and vandalism which will impact their willingness for large-scale adoption.
Automation Risk Levels by Job Category
When assessing the risk level for your industry, it’s important to consider that:
- Not every company will cut employees due to an increase in productivity; many will simply freeze new hires.
- Most white-collar jobs are significantly easier to automate than blue-collar ones.
- Government jobs are generally more averse to change and therefore likely safer in the short-term.
- The cost-effectiveness of automation versus human labor will influence the pace of change in different sectors. (Countries with lower wages are less incentivized to replace employees)
Keeping the above factors in mind here’s a very rough estimate of the short-term automation risk level in various industries.
White-Collar Jobs
Highest Risk
- Data Entry/Transcription Officers
- Translators
- Payroll, Accountants
- Office Assistants and Clerks
- Artists, Authors and Musicians
- Marketing, SEO, Journalists
- Customer Service Agents and I.T Support
- Film Making, Video Editing and Animation
- Human Resources
Medium Risk
- Lawyers
- Scientists and Mathematicians, Researchers
- Actors and Models
- Software Engineers
Lowest Risk
- Psychologists
- Doctors
- CEOs
- Teachers
Blue-Collar Jobs
Highest Risk
- Grocery Store Stockers
- Warehouse/Factory Workers (especially Amazon)
Medium Risk
- Taxi/truck drivers (look at Waymo)
- Cashiers (self-serve machines lead to increased theft, and you still need someone to watch the store)
- Restaurant Workers (especially fast food)
Lowest Risk
- Skilled Tradespeople (e.g., Plumbers, Electricians, HVAC Technicians)
- Police Officers
- Firefighters
- Nurses and Healthcare Support Workers
- Mechanics
- Construction workers
Note: This is just a rough guide based on my personal opinion. Actual risk levels may vary depending on specific job roles, progress of technological advancements, consumer backlash to AI, and the need for human oversight and personalized interaction with customers. Most professions will only see partial automation rather than completely replacing everyone.
I aim to update this list regularly as the rollout of new technology is announced in various sectors.